According to the recent referendum, 95.5% of Crimean voters chose to leave Ukraine and join Russia. [1] Upon learning of such a high percentage, two thoughts passed through my mind...that this vote was unfair and also that even if it were fair, the choice to join Russia would have probably still gotten a majority.
The demographics of Crimea are as follows: [2]
58.32% Russians
24.32% Ukrainians
12.10% Crimean Tatars
Elsewhere, I've seen that 77% of Crimeans speak Russian, and I'm not sure if this conflicts with the previous demographics or if many ethnic Ukranians and Tatars speak Russian. Here is a map of the native languages of Ukraine, showing clearly the Russian majority in Crimea:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UkraineNativeLanguagesCensus2001detailed-en.png
At any rate, Russians make up a majority, but not such an overwhelming majority. Even with groups abstaining from voting, the results seem skewed.
But assuming a fair election with nobody abstaining, the Russians would appear to still be in control of the fate of Crimea. Now, is this fair? Yes and No.
I am generally for the right of "self determination". I think that in many cases, people should be in the countries they want to be in. So if 95.5% of Crimeans really wanted to be Russians, then I would support that. However, in this respect, Russia is extremely hypocritical. Russia has numerous areas where non-Russian ethnic groups make up a majority, or where ethnic Russians make up a minority, and there is absolutely no chance that they will be afforded the same rights that the Crimeans are receiving. Let's take a look at some of these regions.
Regions with non-ethnic-Russian majorities and/or ethnic Russian minorities [3]:
Chechnya: 95% Chechen, 01.9% ethnic Russian
Ingushetia: 94% Ingush, 00.8% ethnic Russian
Dagestan: 88% various groups, 03.6% ethnic Russian
Tuva: 82% Tuvan, 16% ethnic Russian
Kabardino-Balkaria: 69% Kabard and Balkar, 22% ethnic Russian
Chuvashia: 67% Chuvash, 26% ethnic Russian
North Ossetia–Alania: 65% Ossetian, 20% ethnic Russian
Kalmykia: 54% Kalmyk, 30% ethnic Russian
Tatarstan: 53% Tatar, 39% ethnic Russian
Karachay–Cherkessia: 52% Karachai and Cherkess, 31% ethnic Russian
Sakha (Yakutia): 49% Yakut, 37% ethnic Russian
Mari El: 43% Mari, 47% ethnic Russian
Bashkortostan: 29% Bashkir, 36% ethnic Russian
I think that if Russia truly believes in the right of self-determination, it should start with itself. The Soviet Union was an empire, but the current nation of Russia is still an empire, with areas containing substantial populations of non-ethnic Russians. In order to not be a hypocrite, you must start with your own country before you interfere with the borders of other nations. But the Russian government is doing the exact opposite. It is trying to grow the nation by taking parts of another, and Crimea appears to be the Sudetenland of Ukraine.
The day when Russia allows all of these republics within its borders to have votes about their future sovereignty, then on that same day, I will urge Ukraine to do that same. Until that day, I do not think that Russia has the right to expect Ukraine to accept the results of this vote.
The usual retort towards my post would be "But the United States interferes with other nations all the time!" I saw that coming, and in response, I have to say that first of all, I do not support everything that the United States does. And if you support Russia when they act as an imperial power but not the United States, then it is you who are biased, not me. And besides that, although there are various native tribes which have not gotten referendums (most of which would probably end up supporting the status-quo), Puerto Rico just recently did. In a referendum in 2012, 61.1% of Puerto Rican voters chose for their territory to join the United States and become the 51st state. We will see where that goes.
Anyway, will it be good if Crimeans join Russia? For the ethnic Russian ones, maybe so. The new Ukrainian government DID take away some benefits from Russian language speakers after the recent revolution. Also, claims that there is a growing fascist trend in Ukraine actually seem to be true to an extent. I remember seeing a documentary about neo-Nazis in Poland and Ukraine, many of whom moonlight as soccer/football hooligans. The link below is to my post, but the video has since been removed:
https://plus.google.com/100881434227795038077/posts/2F5CLvHtkAS
Also, it might even be good for most Ukranians, as with fewer Russians within its borders, it will be more able to choose a government that its majority wants, instead of a Russian-leaning one.
Finally, will it be good if certain Russian-controlled republics gain independence? Well, many are Islamic-majority and places like Chechnya and Ingushetia appear to be highly radicalized, so in my personal opinion, I'd prefer a father figure to look over at least some of them, even if that father can be abusive.
But this is not just about what I'd prefer, or how bad things are in various places. This is about fairness, and Russia's actions towards Ukraine have not been fair.
References:
1. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-26606556
2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea
3. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Republics#Demographics
The demographics of Crimea are as follows: [2]
58.32% Russians
24.32% Ukrainians
12.10% Crimean Tatars
Elsewhere, I've seen that 77% of Crimeans speak Russian, and I'm not sure if this conflicts with the previous demographics or if many ethnic Ukranians and Tatars speak Russian. Here is a map of the native languages of Ukraine, showing clearly the Russian majority in Crimea:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UkraineNativeLanguagesCensus2001detailed-en.png
At any rate, Russians make up a majority, but not such an overwhelming majority. Even with groups abstaining from voting, the results seem skewed.
But assuming a fair election with nobody abstaining, the Russians would appear to still be in control of the fate of Crimea. Now, is this fair? Yes and No.
I am generally for the right of "self determination". I think that in many cases, people should be in the countries they want to be in. So if 95.5% of Crimeans really wanted to be Russians, then I would support that. However, in this respect, Russia is extremely hypocritical. Russia has numerous areas where non-Russian ethnic groups make up a majority, or where ethnic Russians make up a minority, and there is absolutely no chance that they will be afforded the same rights that the Crimeans are receiving. Let's take a look at some of these regions.
Regions with non-ethnic-Russian majorities and/or ethnic Russian minorities [3]:
Chechnya: 95% Chechen, 01.9% ethnic Russian
Ingushetia: 94% Ingush, 00.8% ethnic Russian
Dagestan: 88% various groups, 03.6% ethnic Russian
Tuva: 82% Tuvan, 16% ethnic Russian
Kabardino-Balkaria: 69% Kabard and Balkar, 22% ethnic Russian
Chuvashia: 67% Chuvash, 26% ethnic Russian
North Ossetia–Alania: 65% Ossetian, 20% ethnic Russian
Kalmykia: 54% Kalmyk, 30% ethnic Russian
Tatarstan: 53% Tatar, 39% ethnic Russian
Karachay–Cherkessia: 52% Karachai and Cherkess, 31% ethnic Russian
Sakha (Yakutia): 49% Yakut, 37% ethnic Russian
Mari El: 43% Mari, 47% ethnic Russian
Bashkortostan: 29% Bashkir, 36% ethnic Russian
I think that if Russia truly believes in the right of self-determination, it should start with itself. The Soviet Union was an empire, but the current nation of Russia is still an empire, with areas containing substantial populations of non-ethnic Russians. In order to not be a hypocrite, you must start with your own country before you interfere with the borders of other nations. But the Russian government is doing the exact opposite. It is trying to grow the nation by taking parts of another, and Crimea appears to be the Sudetenland of Ukraine.
The day when Russia allows all of these republics within its borders to have votes about their future sovereignty, then on that same day, I will urge Ukraine to do that same. Until that day, I do not think that Russia has the right to expect Ukraine to accept the results of this vote.
The usual retort towards my post would be "But the United States interferes with other nations all the time!" I saw that coming, and in response, I have to say that first of all, I do not support everything that the United States does. And if you support Russia when they act as an imperial power but not the United States, then it is you who are biased, not me. And besides that, although there are various native tribes which have not gotten referendums (most of which would probably end up supporting the status-quo), Puerto Rico just recently did. In a referendum in 2012, 61.1% of Puerto Rican voters chose for their territory to join the United States and become the 51st state. We will see where that goes.
Anyway, will it be good if Crimeans join Russia? For the ethnic Russian ones, maybe so. The new Ukrainian government DID take away some benefits from Russian language speakers after the recent revolution. Also, claims that there is a growing fascist trend in Ukraine actually seem to be true to an extent. I remember seeing a documentary about neo-Nazis in Poland and Ukraine, many of whom moonlight as soccer/football hooligans. The link below is to my post, but the video has since been removed:
https://plus.google.com/100881434227795038077/posts/2F5CLvHtkAS
Also, it might even be good for most Ukranians, as with fewer Russians within its borders, it will be more able to choose a government that its majority wants, instead of a Russian-leaning one.
Finally, will it be good if certain Russian-controlled republics gain independence? Well, many are Islamic-majority and places like Chechnya and Ingushetia appear to be highly radicalized, so in my personal opinion, I'd prefer a father figure to look over at least some of them, even if that father can be abusive.
But this is not just about what I'd prefer, or how bad things are in various places. This is about fairness, and Russia's actions towards Ukraine have not been fair.
References:
1. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-26606556
2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea
3. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Republics#Demographics
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